Learning and climate change     

Brian C. O'Neill  Paul Crutzen  Arnulf Grübler  Minh Ha Duong  Klaus Keller  Charles Kolstad 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):585-589

Abstract

Learning—i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty—plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.  相似文献   

Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios     

Paul A. Steenhof  Malcolm R. Hill 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):531-548

Abstract

This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period.  相似文献   

Marginal abatement cost curves: a call for caution     

Fabian Kesicki  Paul Ekins 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):219-236

Legal commitments to reduce CO₂ emissions require policy makers to find cost-efficient means to meet these obligations. Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, which illustrate the economics associated with climate change mitigation, have recently attracted a great amount of attention. A number of limitations with MAC curves are explained by the implication they should be just one tool in a broader set of decision-making aids used in assessing climate policy. MAC curves, for example, omit ancillary benefits of greenhouse gas emission abatement, treat uncertainty in a limited manner, exclude intertemporal dynamics and lack the necessary transparency concerning their assumptions. MAC curves based on the individual assessment of abatement measures suffer from additional shortcomings such as the non-consideration of interactions and non-financial costs, a possibly inconsistent baseline, double counting and limited treatment of behavioural aspects. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation exhibit many of the above-mentioned problems, making it particularly difficult to capture in a cost curve. Policy makers should therefore be cautious when interpreting MAC curves, pay attention to the underlying assumptions, consider non-financial costs and be aware of the important uncertainties and underlying path dependencies.  相似文献   

On the relationship between cloud–radiation interaction, atmospheric stability and Atlantic tropical cyclones in a variable-resolution climate model     

Louis-Philippe Caron  Colin G. Jones  Paul A. Vaillancourt  Katja Winger 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(5-6):1257-1269

We compare two 28-year simulations performed with two versions of the Global Environmental Multiscale model run in variable-resolution mode. The two versions differ only by small differences in their radiation scheme. The most significant modification introduced is a reduction in the ice effective radius, which is observed to increase absorption of upwelling infrared radiation and increase temperature in the upper troposphere. The resulting change in vertical lapse rate is then observed to drive a resolution-dependent response of convection, which in turn modifies the zonal circulation and induces significant changes in simulated Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The resulting change in vertical lapse rate and its implication in the context of anthropogenic climate change are discussed.  相似文献   

Al-Cu-Fe alloys in the solar system: Going inside a Khatyrka-like micrometeorite (KT01) from the Nubian Desert,Sudan     

Chi Ma  Jinping Hu  Martin D. Suttle  Yunbin Guan  Thomas G. Sharp  Paul D. Asimow  Paul J. Steinhardt  Luca Bindi 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2023,58(11):1642-1653

A recently described micrometeorite from the Nubian desert (Sudan) contains an exotic Al-Cu-Fe assemblage closely resembling that observed in the Khatyrka chondrite (Suttle et al., 2019; Science Reports 9:12426). We here extend previous investigations of the geochemical, mineralogical, and petrographic characteristics of the Sudan spherule by measuring oxygen isotope ratios in the silicate components and by nano-scale transmission electron microscopy study of a focused ion beam foil that samples the contact between Al-Cu alloys and silicates. O-isotope work indicates an affinity to either OC or CR chondrites, while ruling out a CO or CM precursor. When combined with petrographic evidence we conclude that a CR chondrite parentage is the most likely origin for this micrometeorite. SEM and TEM studies reveal that the Al-Cu alloys mainly consist of Al metal, stolperite (CuAl), and khatyrkite (CuAl₂) together with inclusions in stolperite of a new nanometric, still unknown Al-Cu phase with a likely nominal Cu₃Al₂ stoichiometry. At the interface between the alloy assemblage and the surrounding silicate, there is a thin layer (200 nm) of almost pure MgAl₂O₄ spinel along with well-defined and almost perfectly spherical metallic droplets, predominantly iron in composition. The study yields additional evidence that Al-Cu alloys, the likely precursors to quasicrystals in Khatyrka, occur naturally. Moreover, it implies the existence of multiple pathways leading to the association in reduced form of these two elements, one highly lithophile and the other strongly chalcophile.  相似文献   

Remote sensing mapping of the regeneration of coastal natural habitats in Singapore: Implications for marine conservation in tropical cities     

Y. H. Jonathan Tan  Jacqueline K. Q. Tham  Aayush Paul  Umair Rana  Hui Ping Ang  Nhung T. H. Nguyen  Alex T. K. Yee  Bryan P. I. Leong  Simon Drummond  Karenne P. P. Tun 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2023,44(1):130-148

Rapid urbanization has resulted in the loss of coastal and marine habitats in cities worldwide. The effective conservation of urban coastal ecosystems requires detailed knowledge of their spatial distribution, necessitating high-resolution mapping. Our study produces a high-resolution coastal and marine habitat map and shoreline map for the tropical city-state of Singapore created through pixel-based supervised classification of satellite imagery, bathymetry data and expert ground knowledge. These maps can be used as a base reference for multiple applications including ecological research, conservation and urban planning. They also help identifiy trends in the extent of key coastal habitats, providing insight into their differing levels of vulnerability to loss and potential for restoration to ensure long-term resilience. The method used for mapping shoreline typologies and resulting insights gained, can guide other rapidly urbanizing coastal cities on strategies to assemble useful spatial knowledge for effective conservation of their urban coastal ecosystems.  相似文献   

Mesozoic–Cenozoic multistage tectonic evolution of the Pamir: Detrital fission-track constraints from the Tajik Basin     

Lin Li  Yani Najman  Guillaume Dupont-Nivet  Mauricio Parra  Pierrick Roperch  Mustafa Kaya  Niels Meijer  Paul O'Sullivan  Gilby Jepson  Jovid Aminov 《Basin Research》2023,35(2):530-550

Knowledge of the tectonic history of the Pamir contributes to our understanding of both the evolution of collisional orogenic belts as well as factors controlling Central Asian aridification. It is, however, not easy to decipher the Mesozoic–Cenozoic tectonics of the Pamir due to extensive Neogene deformation in an orogen that remains largely understudied. This study reports detrital apatite and zircon fission-track (FT) ages from both the eastern Tajik Basin sedimentary rocks and Pamir modern river sands. These FT data, supported by vitrinite reflectance and zircon and apatite U–Pb double dating, suggest that the majority of the FT ages are unreset and record exhumation stages of the Pamir, which has served as the source terrane of the Tajik Basin since the Cretaceous. Furthermore, we combine the new data with a compilation of published detrital apatite and zircon FT data from both the Tajik Basin sedimentary rocks and Pamir modern river sands, to explore the Mesozoic–Cenozoic tectonic history of Pamir. Deconvolved FT Peak Ages document two major Mesozoic exhumation events associated with the Late Triassic–Early Jurassic Cimmerian orogeny that reflects accretion of the Pamir terranes, as well as the Early–early Late Cretaceous deformation associated with the northward subduction of the Neo-Tethys Ocean beneath Pamir. The compiled data also show significant Late Eocene–Neogene exhumation associated with the ongoing formation of the Pamir, which peaks at ca. 36, 25, 14 and 7 Ma.  相似文献   

Wave grouping characteristics in nearshore Great Lakes   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Paul C. Liu   《Ocean Engineering》2000,27(11)

The recently advanced approach of wavelet transform is applied to the analysis of wave data measured in the nearshore areas of the Great Lakes. The conventional spectrum analysis of wave time series in the frequency domain can be readily generalized to the frequency and time domain using the wavelet transform. The traditional Fourier transform approach has not been able to directly assess the time localized nature of wave groups. With the application of wavelet transformation, the relatively unexplored wave grouping characteristics come to light as the predominant feature of wave processes.  相似文献   

On the ratio between shifts in the eddy-driven jet and the Hadley cell edge     

Paul W. Staten  Thomas Reichler 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1229-1242

This study explores the relationship between latitudinal shifts in the eddy-driven jet and in the Hadley cell edge as depicted in models and reanalyses. We calculate an interannual shift ratio of approximately 1.5:1 between the eddy-driven jet and the Hadley cell edge over the Southern Hemisphere during austral summer in model data. We further find that the ratio varies from season to season, with similarities between corresponding seasons over each hemisphere. Ratios are broadly consistent between models in this study, and appear to be realistic when compared to those from reanalyses. Mean tropical SSTs and the strength of zonal winds in the tropics appear to be critical to determining the ratio, while sea surface temperature variability is not. We argue that conditions in the tropics act to modulate the effect of midlatitude eddies on the Hadley cell, and the action of eddies in turn explains most of the correlated shifts from year to year. In contrast, the mean state of the tropics is a poor predictor of both the ratio of observed trends in reanalyses and the ratio of modeled externally forced shifts. We show that the ratios of modeled shifts are dependent on the type of external forcing.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of modern climate to the presence,strength and salinity of Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange in a global general circulation model     

Ruza F. Ivanovic  Paul J. Valdes  Lauren Gregoire  Rachel Flecker  Marcus Gutjahr 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(3-4):859-877

Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) is thought to be a key contributor to the strength and stability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), but the future of Mediterranean-Atlantic water exchange is uncertain. It is chiefly dependent on the difference between Mediterranean and Atlantic temperature and salinity characteristics, and as a semi-enclosed basin, the Mediterranean is particularly vulnerable to future changes in climate and water usage. Certainly, there is strong geologic evidence that the Mediterranean underwent dramatic salinity and sea-level fluctuations in the past. Here, we use a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean General Circulation Model to examine the impact of changes in Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange on global ocean circulation and climate. Our results suggest that MOW strengthens and possibly stabilises the AMOC not through any contribution towards NADW formation, but by delivering relatively warm, saline water to southbound Atlantic currents below 800 m. However, we find almost no climate signal associated with changes in Mediterranean-Atlantic flow strength. Mediterranean salinity, on the other hand, controls MOW buoyancy in the Atlantic and therefore affects its interaction with the shallow-intermediate circulation patterns that govern surface climate. Changing Mediterranean salinity by a factor of two reorganises shallow North Atlantic circulation, resulting in regional climate anomalies in the North Atlantic, Labrador and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas of ±4 °C or more. Although such major variations in salinity are believed to have occurred in the past, they are unlikely to occur in the near future. However, our work does suggest that changes in the Mediterranean’s hydrological balance can impact global-scale climate.  相似文献